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Optimal planning for wind power capacity in an electric powersystem
電力系統中風力電能的最佳規劃

The optimization of wind power capacity for an electric power system is studiedwith the system operation, economy and reliability emphasized. The economicaspect is evaluated in view of the system-wide social cost, which includes thesocial cost of conventional and wind electricity generation, the reserve cost,the value of lost load and the opportunity cost of wind curtailments. Theprobabilistic methods are adopted to assess the system reliability in terms ofthe loss-of-load probability (LOLP) and to estimate the spinning reservedepending on the uncertainty of wind power generation and load demand forecast.Within the probabilistic framework, the wind power capacity planning problem isaddressed by the chance constrained programming (CCP) approach, which iscapable to handle with such an optimization problem containing random variablesand probabilistic constraints. The CCP-based wind power capacity planningproblem aims at minimizing the system social cost while satisfying thereliability criteria and operational constraints. A case study is done todetermine the optimal wind power installation for a typical isolated powersystem. This paper provides system planners and policy makers with an approachto initiating wind power investment and incentives in order to facilitate thedevelopment of a cost-effective wind market.

電力系統風力電能的最佳化以其所強調的系統操作性、經濟性和可靠性被加以研究。經濟方面是就(包含了傳統跟風力發電、儲備成本、缺電損失和風力衰減機會成本的全系統社會成本)觀點加以評估。採用概率統計方法，以缺電機率評估系統可靠度，而且依據風力發電的不確定性和預估的電力需求估算備載容量。在此概率架構下，風力電能規劃問題可以藉由(有辦法應付這樣包含隨機變數跟概率限制最佳化問題的)機率限制規劃法來處理。基於機率限制規劃法的風力電能規劃問題目的在於以最小的系統社會成本滿足可靠度規範與操作限制。為了測定獨立電力系統最佳的風能設備作了一項案例研究。本論文提供系統規劃者和決策制定者一個觸發風能投資與刺激以推進具成本效益風力市場發展的方法。