經濟論文英翻中
When Rupert Murdoch sees beams of light in the American advertising market, it is not necessarily time to reach for the sunglasses. Last October, when the impact of September 11th was only beginning to tell, the boss of NewsCorp, a media group, had already identified “strong rays of sunshine”. With ad sales still languishing, Mr. Murdoch declared last month that “there are some hints of a modest upswing in the U.S. advertising markets.” His early optimism turned out to be misplaced. Now, however, other industry observers are beginning to agree with him.
當Rupert Murdoch 看到美國廣告市場上的一線曙光時，這時候太陽眼鏡的市場仍未成熟。去年10月，911衝擊才剛讓新聞集團的老闆確定了「鋒芒畢露」的市場潛力。因為廣告銷售成績仍舊遲滯，Murdoch先生上個月宣佈說：「在美國的廣告市場僅出現溫和的回升現象」，這有違早期的樂觀看法，其他行業觀察家也開始同意他的觀點。
Advertising usually exaggerates the economic cycle: falling sharply and early in a downturn, and rebounding strongly once the economy has begun to recover. This is because most managers prefer to trim their ad budgets rather than their payrolls, and restore such spending only once they feel sure that things are looking up. Last year, America's ad market shrank by 9.8%, according to CMR, a research firm. Although ad spending has not yet recovered across all media, some analysts now expect overall ad spending to start to grow in the third quarter.
廣告通常會誇大經濟週期：急劇下降、提早反轉，一旦經濟開始復甦就開始強勁反彈。這是因為大多數的管理者寧願削減自己的廣告預算而非薪資支出，只有在確認情況好轉時才會恢復這些廣告開支。去年，根據一家CMR研究機構的表格，美國的廣告市場萎縮了9.8％。雖然所有的廣告媒體尚未完全回復原有的廣告支出，有些分析師現預計在第三季整體的廣告開支才會開始增長。
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